单结果多原因情况下的因果判断研究

Causal Judgment in the Condition of One Outcome with Two Causes

本研究以直接呈现每种因果类型的频次的方式考察单结果多原因情况下影响因果判断的因素,同时检验概率对照模型,效力PC理论和因果模型理论。结果发现:(1)影响因果判断的因素有:事件原因与促进条件的性质差异,原因的熟悉度,原因和结果的共变程度;(2)问题抽象性对因果判断没有影响;(3)概率对照模型和因果模型理论在一定的情况下适用,但是都不能解释所有的情况。

Two experiments were conducted to investigate the factors which influence causal judgment in the condition of one outcome with two causes,and to test the probabilistic contrast model,the power PC theory,and the causal model theory. The results showed： （1） the factors which influence causal judgment were that the cause was the real cause or stimulative,the familiarity of the cause,and the covariation degree of causes with outcomes; （2） the character of questions didn＇t influence causal judgment; （3）causal judgment in some conditions were in accord with the probabilistic contrast model and the causal model theory,but they couldn＇t explain causal judgment in all conditions.