我国通货膨胀动态和货币政策效果的行为宏观解释

A Behavioral Macroeconomic Interpretation of China's Inflation Dynamics and of the Effect of her Monetary Policies

对中国1990～2005年季度数据的SVAR分析显示,货币政策的通胀效果是滞后的,而且通货膨胀表现出惯性的特征。本文通过对当前两类主流宏观模型的模拟发现:完全前瞻的新凯恩斯主义粘性价格模型不符合货币冲击的历史效果,而Mankiw等提出的粘性信息模型则具有更强的合理性。这一理论解释力方面存在的差别主要源自,新凯恩斯主义粘性信息模型保持着理性预期假设,而粘性信息模型对理性预期完全信息进行了放松。因此,粘性信息模型行为宏观经济模型为我国货币政策效果讨论和最优货币政策研究提供了更好的理论基础。

The results of SVAR analyses of China's quarter data (1990.1-2005.1) show that the monetary policies have had a hysteresis effect on inflation and that China's inflation has exhibited the characteristics of inertia. By the simulation of the present two kinds of mainstream macro models, we have found that the new Keynesian completely- forward- looking sticky price models do not accord with historical facts, the occurrence of which were affected by money, and that, however, the sticky information theory model provided by Mankiw and other writers is more rational. The difference of the two theories in the power of interpretation lies mainly in the fact that the new Keynesian sticky information model holds the rational expectation hypothesis while the sticky information model constructed by Mankiw does not pay so much attention to it. Therefore, the behavioral macroeconomic model of the sticky information built by Mankiw has provided a better theoretic foundation for the discussion on the effect of China's monetary policy and for the research into China's optimal monetary policies.