中国机动车辆保险承保周期存在性分析

Analysis on Existence of Underwriting Cycle of Automobile Insurance in China

承保周期反映了承保利润的周期性变动情况，同时这种变动伴随着保费、保险产品供给的周期性波动。在欧美等产险业发达的国家，承保周期现象得到了广泛的研究，但是在中国由于经营机制和数据库建立不完善等问题，至今对承保周期的研究几乎一片空白。本文利用国外学者 Venezaian 提出的二阶自回归模型来检验中国机动车辆保险的周期存在性，经过检验认为机动车辆保险存在承保周期，因而，保险公司、保险监管机关、投资者可以利用承保周期规律来制定更加科学合理的决策。

Underwriting cycle reflects period fluctuations of underwriting profit. It also accompanies with the period fluctuation of premium and supply of insurance product. In developed countries such as Europe and USA, underwriting cycle has been studied widely, but in China, as operating mechanism and database are imperfect, the study on underwriting cycle is still lack. This paper tests the existence of underwriting cycle of automobile insurance in China by second order auto-regression model and gets conclusion that there is underwriting cycle of automobile insurance in China, so that the insurance companies, regulators and investors can make use of rule of underwriting cycle to make policy more rationally.