福建省县域城镇化与工业化关系量化测度与分析

Quantization and Analysis of the Relationship Between Urbanization and Industrialization in Fujian Province

以往对城镇化与工业化的关系分析中,都将全国或省域作为一个整体来研究。但对内部自然环境和区位条件差别很大的省份,县域差异明显,得出的结论误差会很大,也无法反映城镇化发展的真实情况。本文通过对国际上常有的两种城镇化与工业化关系量化方法比较,认为用修正后的钱纳里标准法来反映县域城镇化与工业化关系合理且简要。并利用钱纳里修正值建立城镇化率与人均GDP之间的数学回归模型,进而用此模型对福建省县域2005年城镇化与工业化关系进行测度分析和评价。

This paper compares two common quantitative methods of relationship between urbanization and industrialization, and finds out that the way of Chenery Normal Amended is reasonable and simple to reflect the relationship between urbanization and industrialization on county level. It builds an autoregressive model of GDP per capita and urbanization rate with Chenery Normal Amended Value, and also analyzes the relationship between urbanization and industrialization of Fujian province in 2005 based on this model.