基于农用地分等成果的耕地需求量预测研究

Forecasting Method of Cultivated Land Requirement and Its Application Based on Agricultural Land Gradation

耕地是保障粮食供给的关键,因此合理确定耕地数量是耕地资源管理的客观需求。引入耕地质量指标,提出基于农用地分等成果的耕地需求量预测方法,通过标准地块,从数量、质量两方面确定耕地需求量,从而提高预测成果的科学性和准确性,并应用于山东淄川区,取得了较好的效果。

Sufficient foodstuff is a prerequisite of human＇s survival and sustainable development. Enough cultivated land can ensure commissariat and it is necessary to ensure its reasonable amount. At present, forecasting method of cultivated land requirement considers little about quality and can＇ t have a reasonable result. This paper introduces quality index, uses agricultural land gradation results to forecast cultivated land requirement. Using normative cultivated land, considering both quantity and quality index, this paper brings forward a new method based on agricultural land gradation results. The experimental results in Zichuan Borough show that the new method is more scientific and practical than the traditional forecasting ways. Without complicated mathematical model, this method is pellucid and easy to operate. This investigation offers a simple and effective means to manage cultivated land security of foodstuff.