控制权市场经济影响因素的经验分析——以美国1970-1999年的市场为例

Empirical Research on Economic Influence Factors of Market for Corporate Control——Taking the American Market for Example from 1970-1999

通过对影响控制权市场的三个主要经济因素的剖析,并结合美国1970-1999年控制权市场的数据,本文建立了控制权市场与宏观经济、资本市场以及法律政策等因素的可量化指标体系,运用灰色关联度模型,对各个影响因素的重要性进行了排序。研究的主要结论为:长期来看,影响兼并与收购交易金额的因素与影响交易数量因素的重要性排序是一致的,其首要因素是股票综合指数;影响两次浪潮中并购交易数量的首要因素均为新增直接投资。

This paper analyses three primary macroeconomic factors influencing the market for corporate control, and bases on the previous study and takes the American market＇ s data from 1970 - 1999 years, we establish the corresponding reflection indices system of the market for the corporate control and macroeconomic, stock market and law regulations firstly, then using the grey relational grade analytic model to order their influence importance. The main conclusions are： From the point of long-run period, these influence factors are in the same order either in the amount or in deal numbers, and comprehensive stock index is in the first order. Another first order factor that affects the deal numbers of the corporate control market during the fourth and the fifth merger waves in America is newly increased investment.