吉林省气候变化及其对粮食生产的影响

Climate Change and Its Impacts on Grain Production in Jilin Province

应用气候观测、再分析资料和吉林省粮豆单产资料,研究了气候变化对粮食生产的影响。结果表明:近40多年来在北半球中纬度地区,吉林省是夏季农业生长季(5-9月)的平均温度上升趋势最显著的地区,该省中西部、南部和辽宁省为东北地区年降水量线性减少趋势较显著的地区,气候变化以暖干倾向为主;吉林省东部为年降水量线性增加趋势的显著地区。吉林省气候变暖对自20世纪80年代以来粮豆单产的持续增长起着重要的作用,但在20世纪末期至21世纪初,这种有利作用已不明显,呈现出粮豆单产年际变化随降水量的多寡而振动的特点。

The climatological observation data, reanalysis data and grain/soybean yields per unit area are used to analyze and interpret the impacts of climate change on grain production in this paper. The results show that Jilin Province is the most remarkably temperature increase area in the growing season （May to September） in the Northern Hemisphere＇s middle latitudes after 1948. The region of the mid-west and south of Jilin Province and Liaoning Province is a distinctively, linearly decreasing trend area of annual precipitation, where climate change showed a dominant warm/drought trend; but the east of Jilin is a notably linear increase area of annual precipitation. The climate warming played an important role in the persistent increase in grain/soybean yield per unit area since the 1980＇s in Jilin＇s main production areas of grain, however, this beneficial function has become greatly weakened, and the grain/soybean yield per unit area starts to oscillate with annual precipitation from the end of 20th to the beginning of 21 st centuries.