中国旅游业发展若干指标分析与预测

Analysis and Forecast on Several Indicators of China's Tourism Development

运用回归分析法分析了我国旅游业入境旅游人数、国内旅游人数和旅游总收入与时间及人均国民收入的关系,认为“三大旅游经济指标”与时间(年)和人均国民收入均存在极显著的正相关性。当人均国民收入增加1美元时,入境旅游人数将增加10.218万人次,国内旅游人数将增加71.595万人次,旅游总收入增加6.938亿元人民币;预测到2015年,入境旅游人数将接近2亿人次,国内旅游人数突破20亿人次大关,旅游总收入也将突破2万亿元人民币,年平均增长率分别为9.10%,6.51%和11.16%。

With the analysis of the relationship between the international tourist arrivals, the domestic tourist arrivals, the gross revenue of tourism industry of China and the time, the national income per capita by using regression analysis,this article came to an result that the ＂three major traveling economic indicators＂ has the extremely remarkable relevance with the time（year） and the national income per capita. When the national income per capita increases 1 US dollar,the international tourist arrivals will increase 102,180 people, the domestic tourist arrivals will increase 715,950 people, and the gross revenue of tourism industry will increase 693.8 million yuan. By 2015, the international tourist arrivals will approach 200 million,the domestic tourist arrivals will break through 2 billion, the gross revenue of tourism industry will also break through 2 trillion yuan,the average annual rate of growth will be 9. 10% ,6.51% and 11.16%.