犍为县城镇化发展趋势及其用地需求分析

Developing Trend of Urbanization and Requirement Analysis of Land Use in Qianwei County

分析了四川省犍为县的社会经济环境和小城镇发展现状,采用综合增长率预测法、时间序列预测法、灰色数列预测法对2010和2020年犍为县总人口和县城聚集人口进行预测,2010年和2020年犍为县总人口和积聚人口分别为559 7735、50 773和123 0091、36 356人;并以人口数据为基础,利用定性分析法、人口预测法、联合国法等方法预测了2010和2020年犍为县的城镇化水平,2010和2020年犍为县城镇化水平分别为37.74%4、8.82%;最后推算出2010和2020年城镇建设所需用地分别为1 636.844 8 hm2和2 490.474 hm2。以此为区域规划者和领导决策层提供依据。

Based on the comprehensive analysis of social economic environment and the present status of urhanization in Qianwei County in Sichuan province, the article forecasts the value of people in the year 2010 and 2020 by means of several methods. And take this as foundation, it also calculates the urbanization level in the year 2010 and 2020 with the methods of the qualitative analytic method, population forecasting methodand the United Nations method. In the end, it reckons the specific value of city constructive land which needed in the year 2010 and 2020 to offer some bases for those who work on the regional plan and policy making.