2007年国内外石油经济热点展望——访王海运、杨上明、冯玉军、赵宏图、邓郁松、陈薇、杨建红

Likely Hot Issues in the Oil Economy at Home and Abroad in 2007

展望2007年，“石油”依然是全球政治经济领域最抢眼的热点之一。 放眼国际，大国经济形势呈现多种走向，世界地缘政治格局进一步复杂化；在更大范围内进行能源合作、保障本国和地区能源安全成为影响各国政策调整和地区事务的重要因素；淡化冲突、矛盾，寻求政治、经济利益的最大化成为各国博弈的共识；资源富国强调本国利益，加大对本国石油资源的控制成为一种趋势；国际油价的起起落落将承载更多的政治、经济内涵，油价依旧会成为新的一年中最热门的话题……

International Petroleum Economics brings together Mr. Wang Haiyun, senior advisor of the China International Strategy Society, Yang Shangming, Deputy Director of the Petrochemical, Light Industry and Textile Business Department, China International Engineering Consulting Corporation, Feng Yujun, Deputy Director of the CICIR Institute of Russian Studies, Zhao Hongtu, Deputy Director of the CICIR Institute of World Economic Studies, Deng Yusong, head of the DRC Market Economy Institute research office, and Ms. Chen Wei, Deputy General Manager of Beijing Eagle Petroleum Engineering Consultancy Co., Ltd's to contemplate likely hot issues in the oil economy at home and abroad in 2007. The topics discussed by the experts include energy diplomacy, cooperation and security; energy policy changes by major oil consuming and producing countries; global oil price and China's oil supply and demand; deregulation of, access to, and supervision of the domestic market for oil products; international cooperation in, market demand for, and I supply and price of natural gas and LNG; development trends for petrochemicals in China and key projects; and development of chemical derivatives from coal in China as an alternative to oil. 1) Energy diplomacy, cooperation and security. The global energy landscape is expected to continue changing in 2007, with three trends emerging in energy diplomacy: big oil-consuming regions like the United States, Japan and the EU are expected to pursue energy cooperation with oil-producing countries to safeguard their energy security and interests; some oil-producing countries will attempt to leverage the rising oil price to increase their influence in the international community; and multilateral energy diplomacy is expected to increase among countries and organizations. 2) Energy policy changes by major oil-consuming and producing countries. Major oil-consuming and producing countries are expected to continue reshaping their energy policies in 2007 with the right energy strategies and laws and stepped up demand management. Efforts will be made to slow down oil consumption by increasing the efficiency with which energy is consumed; to develop new sources of energy including renewable energy, and to diversify the energy portfolio (the major oil-consuming developed countries all recently unveiled new energy strategies aimed at cutting down consumption by increasing efficiency, and an increasing number of developing countries are realizing the importance and urgency of increasing energy use efficiency and developing new energy sources); and to reduce dependence on foreign energy. Some oil-producing countries increased their grip on their oil and gas resources in 2006 - a trend expected to intensify in the year 2007. 3) Global oil price and China's oil supply and demand. A slow down in global economic growth, plus the narrowing gap between oil demand and supply, is likely to drive down the global oil price in 2007. The global demand for oil is however still on the rise, but the temporary balance between demand and supply is unlikely to continue. This increases the influence of speculation in the futures market on oil price movement, and consequently uncertainty in the market, and the global crude oil price is likely to linger at a high level. With investment by the energy industry expected to continually increase in 2007, China's oil production capacity will continue expanding, narrowing the gap between local oil demand and supply. China's energy policies are expected to pay increasing attention to long- term development and sustainable use of energy, and will highlight the joint role of markets and government in energy production and consumption. 4) Deregulation of, access to, and supervision of the domestic market for oil products. According to the Rules for Crude Oil Market Administration and the Rules for Oil Product Market Administration unveiled by the Ministry of Commerce on December 6, 2006, all foreign-invested and domestic businesses will be brought under the same set of rules for market access as of January 1, 2007. Setting down detailed rules on access to and withdrawal from the domestic crude and oil product markets, the two Rules open the door to fair competition in the oil market. Other related laws and regulations, such as an antitrust law, rules for crude and oil product wholesaling and storage management, are expected to be unveiled soon. With the playing field leveled by policies and regulations, crude oil suppliers, oil refiners, oil transportation pipelines and retailers form an efficient supply chain where the competitiveness of a particular business depends on the efficiency more of the entire chain than of some specific link. Oil refineries, storage facilities, retailers and wholesalers along an efficient supply chain will be better positioned for expansion, while inefficient ones will be gradually phased out. 5) Natural gas and LNG policy and market development trends. The focus of China's natural gas and LNG policies in 2007 will continue to be on improving the pricing mechanism, and addressing the challenge to the existing price system by an increase in gas resources and pipeline transportation. Supervision of the pipeline tariff is a key issue to be tackled in the immediate future. The natural gas price in China, as suggested by experts, should be determined more by the local market than by the global one, and be linked to alternative energy sources rather than oil. Additionally, a specific formula should be adopted for flexible pricing and a well- developed price structure ought to be in place. 2007 will be the critical year setting the tone for natural-gas-fired power generation, and the attitude of suppliers and power grids toward natural-gas-fired power generation is critical. Breakthroughs are also expected in 2007 in importing natural gas. 6) Development trends for petrochemicals in China and key projects. Four new trends will emerge in the development of China's petrochemical industry in 2007: the integration of oil refining and chemical production will be further promoted for scale economy; large oil refinery and ethylene projects are to be launched and will use domestically made equipment and engineering designs; three petrochemical industry complexes are to be constructed in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Bohai Rim areas to form up a group of 10-million-ton oil refinery and 1-million-ton ethylene bases. Six integrated oil refining and ethylene projects will be implemented in 2007: in Dushanzi, Xinjiang (10-million ton oil refining and 1-million ton ethylene production capacity); in Fujian (12-million ton oil refining and 0.8-million ton ethylene production capacity); in Binhai, Tianjin (12.5 million ton oil refining and 1 million ton ethylene production capacity); in Zhenhai, Zhejiang (20 million ton oil-refining and 1 million ton ethylene production capacity); in Fushun, Liaoning (10 million ton oil-refining and 1 million ton ethylene production capacity); and in Chengdu, Sichuan (10 million ton oil-refining and 0.8 million ton ethylene production capacity). 7) Development of chemical derivatives from coal in China as an alternative to oil. Besides bio-alcohol, China needs to develop glycol ether as an oil alternative. China will focus on using coal-made methanol to produce DME and Olefin and use coal to produce oil (still at the technical preparation stage). The National Development and Reform Commission issued a special notice in July 2006 calling for well-planned development of chemical derivatives from coal and, at a later time, organized efforts to decide policies and medium- and long-term plans for development of chemical derivatives from coal. The Chinese chemical industry is expected to continue down a path of sound development through more efficient management in 2007.