变化·调整·适应——石油市场探寻新的平衡——“2007年石油市场形势研讨会”综述

Change· Adjustment· Adaptation——New Balance in the Oil Market——Overview of the Oil Market Trends Forum 2007

进入新世纪,全球化浪潮促使国际分工更加深化,世界经济显示出比以往任何时候都强的活力,国际政治经济格局在变,世界能源秩序在变,世界石油市场也在变。新兴市场与发展中国家逐步成为世界经济增长的强大动力,并拉动各种自然资源消费加速增长。在高油价的背景下,国内外经济发展和能源(石油)消费增长依然强劲,这使得有限的资源承受着更大的供应压力。在这样的背景下,《国际石油经济》编辑部于2006年11月30日-12月1日在京举办了“2007年石油市场形势研讨会”。20多位各方面知名专家与100多位业内外代表,采用主题报告和小组讨论相结合的方式,分专题对国际市场和国内市场展开了深入的探讨。在此,我们采撷会议的精华观点,奉献给读者。

Acceleration of economic globalization and a consequently greater division of labor since the start of the new century are rendering the global economy more dynamic than ever before. Emerging markets and developing countries are becoming major driving forces behind global economic development, and are driving up global demand for natural resources. Sustained high oil prices, plus growing energy consumption, are straining already strapped energy supplies. The Oil Market Trends Forum 2007 held in Beijing by International Petroleum Economics from November 30 to December 1, 2006 brought together 20 experts and over 100 representatives from within and outside the petroleum industry to discuss emerging trends in the global and domestic oil market from a variety of perspectives. The topics discussed include 1) the influence of the ever-changing political and economic landscape on the global oil market; 2) global economic growth and oil demand; 3) up-stream investment and the development in oil refining; 4) global oil supply and demand and oil price forecasts; 5) China's economic growth and oil demand; 6) state of the Chinese oil market; 7) China's future oil policies; and 8) energy saving and oil alternatives. Accelerated economic globalization, coupled with the rise of developing economies, will sustain the global economy at a high rate of growth, which in turn will increase energy demand, particularly for oil and gas. Stagnant supply stands in stark contrast to the continued rise in demand. Most of the oil and gas reserves proven so far are concentrated in a handful of countries and regions. Driven by the high oil price, the expenditure of oil exploration and development is on the rise. The oil- producing countries are also tightening their grip on their oil and gas resources. Widespread development of deep- water and other non-conventional oil resources is still not imminent given the high costs. These factors, plus potential geopolitical conflicts, make it unlikely oil and gas supplies will increase enough to meet the growing demand anytime soon. Recent growing concern and heated debate over the Peak Oil hypothesis reflect widespread worry about oil supplies and policies. Given these circumstances, a high oil price at 40-80 dollars per barrel seems to be the sole optiona vailable. Already closely integrated into the global economy, China is increasingly a major force in sustained global economic development by providing the world with huge amounts of inexpensive but high-quality products. Its accelerated urbanization and industrialization process, plus its role as the world's manufacturing hub, mean a growing demand for energy, particularly for petroleum. Given already strapped world oil supplies, how to accommodate their increasing demand for oil is one of the key questions to be addressed by China and other developing countries. Oil market development at home and abroad, plus the progress in legal institutionalization in China, require oil policies that facilitate fair competition and priority development in oil-abundant regions. Effort should also be made to develop an energy industry database providing accurate and timely information on oil production, consumption, import, export and inventory. Trend analysis and forecasting should also be improved to provide a more reliable basis for macro control and regulation and business operations. Despite the huge potential for energy saving in China, much remains to be done, including identifying specific economic leverage opportunities, to make it happen. The alternative energy portfolio needs further diversification, but only projects that are feasible in terms of economic return, resource availability, technological soundness and environmental friendliness should be approved and implemented. Accelerated economic globalization is bringing profound change to the global political and economic landscape and the world energy order, reflected in the global oil market. China's oil industry, particularly the oil companies' top management, needs to be keenly aware of these changes and influences, and behave proactively by adopting targeted strategies consistent with actual circumstances in China's oil market. Supplying the economy with enough oil will not only sustain China's development, but also provide an example for other developing countries to follow.