近年我国成品油消费特点及2007年需求预测

China's Oil Product Consumption in Recent Years and 2007 Forecast

我国成品油消费在经历了2004年的高速增长后,2005年增速明显放缓,而2006年各季度成品油消费增速普遍高于上年同期水平。据初步统计,2006年全年成品油消费量为17498万吨,比2005年增加了1054万吨,同比增长6.4%。近年来,我国交通用油在成品油消费结构中的比例明显提高;高标号汽油消费增长明显,乙醇汽油消费增长加快;交通运输用柴油占柴油总消费量的比例稳步上升;航空运输的高速发展带动了航煤需求的增长。国民经济和交通运输业的高速发展,汽车保有量的增长及结构变化是推动我国成品油消费变化的主要原因。综合考虑成品油需求的拉动因素和抑制因素,预计2007年我国成品油需求将延续2006年的增长趋势,但增幅略有回落,汽油消费量为5340万吨左右,增幅为5.9%～8.0%;柴油消费量为12030万吨左右,增幅为5.0%～7.1%;煤油的需求量预计达到1200万吨左右,增幅为2.7%～4.8%。

After experiencing rapid growth in 2004, China's oil product consumption slowed considerably in 2005, while in the four quarters of 2006 the rates of growth in oil product consumption were higher than a year earlier in almost all categories. Preliminary statistics show that China consumed a total of 174.98 million tons of oil products in 2006, an increase of 10.54 million tons or 6. 4% over the previous year. In recent years, oil products consumed in transportation account for a significantly increasing share of the country's total oil products consumption. The country's consumption of high-grade gasoline products is increasing rapidly and the growth in consumption of ethanol gasoline is picking up speed. Diesel oil used in transportation accounts for a steadily rising share of total national diesel consumption and rapid growth of the aviation industry has raised China's domestic demand for aviation kerosene. Rapid growth of the economy and in transportation, the increasing number of cars and change in the pattern of automobile consumption are the main factors behind in the changing composition of China's oil product consumption. Taking both driving and inhibiting factors into account, it is predicted that China's oil product demand will continue to grow in 2007 although growth is expected to slow compared with 2006. China's gasoline consumption in 2007 is expected to reach about 53.4 million tons, up 5.9%～8% from 2006. The country's diesel consumption is expected to reach some 120.3 million tons in 2007, up 5%～7.1%, while kerosene demand is expected to reach around 12 million tons, up 2.7%～4.8%.