2007年国际油价驱动因素及油价水平预测

Drivers and Forecast of the Global Oil Price in 2007

从世界各国经济的运行情况看,持续高油价对经济增长的负面影响已开始逐渐显现。2007年全球经济增长不至于陷入衰退,但增速减慢几成定局。受其影响,全球原油需求增速减慢,预计2007年全球原油需求将比2006年增长126万～144万桶/日左右。相比之下,全球原油生产能力增长加速,仅非OPEC原油供给增长就将超过全球原油需求的增长。为控制油价下降,OPEC需要进一步减产,这将导致剩余生产能力进一步增加。因此,基本面因素对国际油价的影响已开始转向。如果不发生重大的地缘政治冲突,预计2007年国际油价将回落到50～60美元/桶左右。如果发生明显的地缘政治冲突,并导致相关国家原油供给减少超过100万桶/日以上,预计2007年国际油价可能会达到65～70美元/桶。从总体上看,2007年国际油价上涨的可能性要低于下跌的可能性。

Prolonged high oil prices appear to have gradually had a negative effect on the performance of the world's major economies. While the world economy is unlikely to slump in 2007, it is set to slow. Itself affected by the economic slowdown, global crude oil demand will in turn slow. It is predicted that global crude demand in 2007 will increase by about 1.26-1.44 million barrels per day over 2006. By contrast, global crude oil production capacity will grow at a faster pace compared with 2006. The growth in crude oil supplies from non- OPEC countries alone will outpace the growth in global crude oil demand. In order to arrest price declines and avoid exacerbating the capacity glut, OPEC needs to cut production. Therefore, the influence of fundamental factors on international oil prices has begun to turn. Assuming no dramatic geopolitical conflicts, international oil prices are expected to drop to US$50- 60 per barrel. However, if such conflicts happen and lead oil-producing countries involved to cut crude oil supplies by more than one million barrels per day, international oil prices could reach US$65-70 per barrel. On the whole, oil prices in the international market are more likely to drop than to rise in 2007.