2005年亳州秋季长连阴雨天气主要成因及其预报

The Major Causes and Forecast on Continuous Autumn Rain in Bozhou Area in 2005

利用NCAR／NCEP再分析资料分析安徽亳州地区2005年9月14～10月7日秋季长连阴雨天气过程期间的500hPa和地面环流特征，结果表明：西风带低槽活动频繁、副高位置适中稳定使得冷、暖气流持续交汇于黄淮地区是造成秋季连阴雨天气的主要原因。

The longest, continuous autumn rain events that was from Septeber 14 to October 7-occurred in Bozhou area, Anhui province of eastem China in 2005.The NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data were used to analyze atmospheric circulation characters of surface temperature and 500 hPa geopotential height field in Europe and Asia regions of this continuous autumn rain. The results showed that the major causes were frequent actives of westerlies, sustainable mixing of cold and warm air in Huaihe River and the Yellow River region, which caused by the stability of subtropics high pressure location.