东南亚无核区前景透析

An Analysis on the Outlook of the South-east Asian Nuclear Weapon Free Zone

亚洲是世界核扩散形势最为严峻的地区。1998年南亚的印度和巴基斯坦进行核试验，成为事实上的核国家；2006年10月9日，东北亚的朝鲜又进行了首次地下核试验，成为世界上第8个宣称自己拥有核武器的国家，东南亚无核区处于南北挤压之中，该地区的核不扩散前景成为人们关注的焦点。美国战略与国际问题研究中心太平洋论坛主席拉尔夫·柯萨指出：“请大家不要忽略东南亚国家。缅甸也希望获得研究用的反应堆，印度尼西亚和越南也在积极探索核能源，虽然这些多米诺骨牌倒掉还需要相当长的时间。”那么东南亚无核区的前景究竟如何？在国际格局或体系不出现剧变的假想前提下，本文试图将地区与国家两个层面的相关因素结合考虑，以期得到更有依据的答案。

The ten South Eastern Asian nations signed Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone （Bangkok Treaty）in 1995, of which no protocol, however, has been signed up to now by the five big nuclear powers. The recent nuclear test conducted by North Korea triggered off a new wave of concern over the issue of nuclear prolifera- tion in the region of East Asia including South East Asia. Nevertheless, with the relevant determining factors put into consideration, it might be argued that the construction of the South East Asian nuclear weapon free zone will continue to advance rather than retrogress. The nuclear weapon free zone seems to have a bright outlook, and it is a simple matter of time for the zone to be finally actualized.