2007年我国宏观经济形势分析与展望

An Analysis of the Macro Economic Situations and Its Outlook in 2007

2006年我国宏观经济运行呈现固定资产投资增速有所降低、消费和物价涨幅保持平稳、对外贸易保持了快速增长等特点,并且存在着地方政府投资冲动仍然较强、银行体系流动性过剩增加、国内外经济失衡有所加重、中小企业融资难越来越突出、经济增长对环境的压力增大等问题。2007年全球经济和国内经济增长可能出现减缓。根据2006年我国宏观经济运行特点、趋势和2007年全球经济形势分析,应该规范和抑制地方政府投资行为和投资冲动,优化商业银行信贷结构,继续运用财税和货币政策控制顺差扩大的趋势,大力实施结构性调控政策,改进中央政府和地方政府在宏观调控中的博弈模式。

The macro economy in 2006 is characterized by a slowing down in growth of investment in fixed assets, a low level of CPI and brisk growth of foreign trade. Meanwhile, local governments still had a strong urge for investment, liquidity in the banking system further increased, domestic and foreign economic balance further tilted, financing of small and medium - sized enterprises was even more difficult, and economic growth＇ s pressure on environment was further increased. In 2007, the growth of global economy and domestic economy might slacken. Considering the characteristics of 2006 macro economy and our analysis on the global economic situations in 2007, we should regularize and restrict investment activities and investment urges of local governments, optimize commercial banking credit structure, continue to apply fiscal and monetary policies to control the expansion of favorable trade surplus, more vehemently apply structural regulation policies, and improve the game model between the central government and local governments in macro control.