流动性过剩背景下的经济、金融形势——2006年形势总结

2006年我国宏观经济、金融形势的基本特点是"流动性过剩"。宏观经济形势方面,制造业投资增速减缓,房地产投资增速加快,城镇固定资产投资对GDP的贡献继续上升;商品住宅供销两旺,房地产价格持续攀升;CPI继续低迷,PPI 从相对高位回落、在这种背景下,货币政策机关采取的收缩流动性和限制流动性的手段值得肯定,但更应该转变思路,采取新的政策组合:通过减税增支降低储蓄率;改革外汇储备管理体制,以切断流动性过剩的外部源泉;重新为宏观经济政策分配任务。

The Macro Economic Research Team of the Financial Bureau under the Academy of Social ScienceThe basic characteristic of the macro economic and financial situations in China in 2006 is＂excessive liquidity＂. In the macro economic perspective, growth of investment in manufacturing slowed down while growth of investment in property increased, resulting in a continuous increase of urban fixed assets investment＇ s contribution to GDP growth; Commercial housing saw brisk supply and demands and housing prices kept going up; CPI remained at a low level, and PPT reversed from a relatively high point. Under these situations, the fiscal policies implemented to decrease and restrict liquidity were appropriate, but more importantly, the policy-makers should change their thinking and adopt a new combination of policies： decrease savings rate through tax deduction and income increase, reform foreign currency reserve management mechanism to cut off the external sources for excessive liquidity, and redeploy tasks among various macro economic policies.