赣北棉铃虫发生量的长期预测研究

Study on the Long一Term Forecast of Heliothis armigera Occurrence in North Jiangxi

以高空气象和地面气象因子为预测因子，以江西省彭泽县棉铃虫全年累计百株卵、幼虫量为预报对象，运用逐步回归分析方法，建立了两个长期预测模式型。两个模式型的预报时效分别为６个月和１０个月，历史符合率分别为１００％和９１．６７％，１９９４～１９９５年的预报准确率平均为７５％。

With high-altitute and ground meteorological factors taken as forecast factors,annual total of egg and larvae of Helioth is amergera occurring per 10 plants in Pengze county,Jiangxi province as forecast objects, two long一term forecast models were established by stepwiseregression analysis method,and verified as valid in their six一and ten一month forecast,with ahistorical coincident rate of 100 % and 91. 67%,respectively.The average forecast accuracy dur-ing l994～1995 was 75%.