前瞻性货币政策反应函数在我国货币政策中的检验

A Test on a Forward looking Monetary Policy Reaction Function in Chinese Monetary Policy

本文在泰勒等西方学者对货币政策反应函数研究的基础上,构造一个适合我国国情的前瞻性货币政策反应函数,从市场利率(同业拆借利率)、管制利率(存贷款利率)以及两者利差三个层次,通过该反应函数对我国货币政策的实证检验结果发现,一方面,该反应函数能够很好地描述同业拆借利率、存贷款利率和两者利差的具体走势,能够为我国货币政策的制定提供一个参考尺度,以衡量货币政策的松紧。另一方面,检验结果表明,三个层次的利率对预期通胀率和预期产出的反应绝大多数都不足,这说明,我国货币政策是一种内在不稳定的货币政策。

Based on both western scholars＇ study such as Taylor on a monetary policy reaction function and Chinese condition, this article makes a new forward-looking monetary policy reaction function, in terms of market interest rate（ inter-bank borrowing rate）, regulated interest rate（rate of deposit and loan） and interest rate spread. According to the result from testing its applicability in Chinese monetary policy, we find that on the one hand, the function can well describe the specific path of inter-bank borrowing rate, rate of deposit and loan, and spread, offer referring criterion for making monetary policy and measure the degree of tightness for monetary policy; on the other hand, the result of test reflects that all of the three kinds of interest rate have an insufficient respond to inflation and output, which indicates that monetary policy of China is an instable monetary policy rule.