人感染高致病性禽流感H5N1病例流行病学分析

Epidemiological analysis on human cases of avian influenza A(H5N1) infection

[目的]分析人感染高致病性禽流感H5N1病例的流行病学特点,指导禽流感防控工作。[方法]收集2003年12月至2006年7月各国向世界卫生组织报告的人感染高致病性禽流感病例个案资料进行统计分析。[结果]10个国家共报告人感染高致病性禽流感病例230例,病死率为58.26%;2005年10月以后,有病例报告的国家迅速增加,发病数有逐年递增趋势;在北半球冬春季是禽流感的发病高峰期;全球病例的性别比为0.97,51.5%的病例年龄小于20岁,而中国病例的性别比为0.46,68.4%的病例年龄在20-39岁。[结论]2006年底2007年春可能会出现人感染禽流感的发病高峰,各项防控措施必须加强。

[ Objective] To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of human cases of avian influenza A{ H5N1 ） infection so as to provide evidence for preventive and control measures. [ Methods] Human cases of H5N1 infection reported to WHO from December 1 st 2003 to July 31 st 2006 were collected from WHO web site and analyzed. [ Results ] From December 1st 2003 to July 31st 2006, 10 countries reported a total of 230 laboratory- confirmed hmnan cases of H5N1 avian influenza to WHO. The overall case - fatality rate was 58.26%. The number of countries reporting first human H5N1 cases increased dramatically after October 2005, and the human H5N1 cases had trend of increase year by year. The epidemiological curve of H5N1 cases pecked during the winter and spring periods in the northern hemisphere for each of the years studied. The overall sex ratio of males to females was 0.97, and 51.5% of the cases occurred among people aged 〈 20 years. But for the Chinese cases sex ratio was 0. 46, and 68.4% of the cases occurred among people aged 20 - 39 years. [ Conclusion] An upsurge in human H5N1 cases could be anticipated starting in later 2006 or early 2007. Further studies and work are needed for prevention and control of avian influenza H5N1.