临沂市经济增长与环境污染水平的经济计量模型研究

Research on the metric model of economy development and circumstance pollution based on the Environmental Kuznets Cure in Linyi City

通过对1986～2004年临沂市环境经济数据的经济计量模型研究,发现该市工业"三废"排放与经济增长之间的拟合曲线并不完全符合典型环境库兹涅茨曲线的特征。经济增长除与工业废水的拟合曲线属于典型倒"U"型状右侧部分外,与工业废气排放量和工业固体废弃物产生量的拟合曲线分别呈现出倒"U"型曲线左侧部分的特征,而且3条曲线整个过程并未出现转折点。主要原因是与临沂市工业发展仍处于初、中级阶段相吻合的,除工业废水污染得到较好的治理外,工业废气和工业固体废弃物污染水平仍然呈不断加重的趋势。

Through analyzing the economic and environmental data from 1986 to 2004 of Linyi City, this paper finds that the curve differs from the typical inverted U shape of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, the curves of waste gas and solid waste but wastewater with the GDP per capita present the left part of inverted U shape. In addition there are no turning points in the course of the whole curves. Using the theory of Environmental Economics ,at last the author bring forwards that the characters what the curves present are in-phase with the industry, economic development, which still in the primary or secondary development phase.