区域耕地-人口-粮食系统动态分析与耕地压力预测——以河北省邢台市为例

Analysis of Dynamics of the Regional Cropland-Population-Grain System and Prediction of the Pressure on Cropland:The Case Study on Xingtai Prefecture of Hebei Province

在分析河北省邢台市1990—2004年耕地、人口、粮食动态变化的基础上,分析了耕地压力指数的变化特点,并对未来15年耕地、人口、粮食进行了预测,进而预测了耕地压力指数的变化。结果显示:1990年以来,虽然邢台市耕地数量持续减少,人口不断增加,但由于耕地生产率不断提高,粮食产量和人均占有量却在增加,耕地压力指数呈现降低的趋势。未来15年耕地压力指数将进一步降低。可见,依靠增加投入和科技进步从而不断提高耕地生产率,是减轻耕地压力、保证粮食安全生产的根本途径。

Based on the analysis of the changes of the cropland, population and grain production during 1990 to 2004 in Xingtai Prefecture, the paper studies the changing characteristics of the pressure index on cropland and predicts the cropland, population, grain output and the pressure index on cropland in the coming 15 years. The results show that since 1990s the total output and the quantity per capita of grain have been increasing due to the increase of production per unit of cropland, although the cropland has been decreasing while the population increasing. Hence, the pressure index on cropland has tended to decrease. In the coming 15 years, the pressure index on cropland will be further decreased. Obviously, it is only through the increase of investment and the progress of science-technology to raise cropland productivity that the pressure on cropland will be reduced and the grain production guaranteed.