选择实验的理论和应用——以中国退耕还林为例

Theory and Practice of Choice Experiment:A Case Study on China's Sloping Land Conversion Program

选择实验的理论基础来自于要素价值理论和随机效用理论,既是一种对环境资源进行价值评估的重要方法,也是揭示研究对象政策偏好的重要手段。利用该方法不仅可以通过对支付意愿或接受赔偿意愿进行评估,进而对一项政策的各个要素的相对重要性进行排序,还可以得到因多个政策要素同时改变时导致的价值变化,从而有助于政策制订者对政策进行调整。本文在评述选择实验的基本理论和方法的基础上,以中国正在实施的退耕还林工程为例,利用选择实验方法对该政策进行了评估,并且基于研究结果对未来的政策改进提出了相关建议。

Choice Experiment is one of the most important techniques for valuing environment and preference on policy instruments. It is based on Lancaster＇ s characteristics theory of value and random utility theory. Using this technique, researchers can get the implied rank of related policy characteristics, and the willingness to pay for a policy which changes more than one attribute simultaneously, Thus the results will contribute to policy adjustment. This paper applies Choice Experiment to evaluate the Sloping Land Conversion Program, an important and one of the biggest ecological restoration programs in China, Policy recommendations are concluded based on the econometrical analysis.