从央行货币政策操作看人民币汇率变动方向

A Research on the Future Changes of RMB Exchange Rate Based on the Central Bank Operations

随着新汇率机制的实施,人民币汇率日益走向浮动化。从开放体系宏观经济模型的角度来看,由于中国国际收支长期保持顺差,导致了国际储备的大量积累,这是导致人民币升值的基础。未来一段时间国际收支顺差仍将继续维持,人民币汇率也将呈现走强的总体变动趋势。从资产市场模型的角度来看,如果央行过去长期实施的SFXO操作发生逆转,将会给人民币汇率带来较大的升值压力。面对人民币升值趋势,国内企业应树立风险意识、积极参与外汇市场活动及实施多元化战略。

With the implementation of the new exchange rate regime, RMB exchange rate becomes more and more flexible. Seen from the open macro - economic model, the large accumulation of international reserve coming from our BOP surplus is the basis of RMB appreciation. As our BOP surplus will continue in the near future, RMB will keep the trend of appreciation. According to the asset market model, if SFXO that has been implemented by our central bank is reversed, it will bring a heavy pressure of appreciation on RMB. Faced with the trend of RMB appreciation, Our domestic enterprises should estabhsh the consciousness of risk, participate in the foreign exchange market and implement diverse strategies.