我国金融结构的历史演进及未来展望

Historic Evolution of Financial Structure and Its Prospect

我国金融结构经历了从无到有、从间接金融占绝对主导地位到间接金融与直接金融相互救赎的演进过程。作为“新兴加转轨”的经济体,我国金融结构的演进属于典型的政府主导的强制性制度变迁。随着我国经济的持续增长和市场主体的日益成熟,诱致性制度变迁的力量逐步积累。因此,政府监管(金融自由化)、金融需求和行业竞争成为我国金融结构演进的三大驱动因素。我国金融结构的演进内容包括存量优化和增量完善两个方面,具体路径为银行体系和资本市场重大制度缺陷的矫正、金融结构的横向多元化和纵向分层化。在这一过程中,资本市场和银行体系将在合作竞争中实现“双赢”,并最终走向综合一体化。

The financial structure in our country experienced from none to some, from the indirect financing as the lead to the coexistence of indirect financing and direct financing. As the “new and transformed” economic body, the evolution of finance structure in our country belongs to the typical forced system transition guided by the government. With the constant economic development and the maturation of the market subject, the power of system transition accumulates step by step. Thus, the government supervision (free finance), financial demand and industry competition have become three driving factors. The content of finance structure evolution should include the optimization of the reserve and the perfection of the addition, while the concrete routes include the correction of the system disfigurement in bank system and capital market system, the transverse multiplication and longitudinal delamination of the finance structure. During the process, the capital market and the bank will achieve “win-win” in the cooperation and competition, and finally goes to integration.