水利投入对旱区农村经济发展的影响评估——以甘肃省为例

Influence of investment of water conservancy on the rural economic growth in arid area——Taking Gansu Province as an example

我国广大干旱、半干旱地区主要致力于工程建设的水利投入尚处在水资源管理的初级阶段水平,对旱区水利投入与农村经济发展的影响关系进行科学性评价是一项有意义的研究工作.研究基于1980—2004年甘肃省水利投入与农村经济发展的年度数据,从理论上阐明了水利投入对干旱、半干旱地区农村经济发展的影响作用.(1)Granger因果关系检验表明水利建设投资与农林牧渔业产值之间存在着双向因果关系,同时有效灌溉面积比值增长也是引起农村居民家庭人均纯收入增长的原因.(2)弹性与脉冲响应分析表明水利投入对农村经济发展的拉动作用存在一定的滞后效应,后续投入对这种拉动作用具有重要意义.(3)多情景、多变量回归模型分析结果则支持水利投入对农村经济有显著影响的结论.

Investments of water conservancy through construction＇in the arid and semi-arid areas are still in the primary stage of management of the water resources. The scientific evaluation of the relationship between investment of water conservancy and rural economic growth is a meaningful researching work.Based on the data of investment of water conservancy and rural economic growth from 1980 to 2004 in Gansu Province, the relationship between them is clarified theoretically. （1） Granger causality tests show that there is a double-direction causality relationship between investment of conservancy construction and agricultural output value. And the increase of the rate of effective irrigated areas was also a reason for the increase of net income of the rural families. （2） The analysis of flexibility and impulse response show that investment of water conservancy has a lagged effect on stimulating the rural economic growth. The followup investment is very important. （3） The results of regression analysis of multi-circumstances and multivariables support the conclusion that investment of water conservancy has a significant effect on the rural economy.