中国气候变化的检测及预估

Detection,Attribution and Projection of Climate Change over China

对近5a来中国科学家在气候变化的检测及预估等方面的研究工作及主要成果进行了总结:采用最新的器测时期资料和代用温度资料对中国地区近50a、100a的温度和降水变化规律进行再分析,初步重建了中国过去1000a的地表温度序列;对20世纪中国气候变化进行了检测,分析了中国气候变化的原因;预估了中国21世纪气候变化。结果表明:近百年中国气候变化的主要特征与全球气候变化的趋势一致。中国近百年增暖的幅度为0.5～0.8℃,比全球同期增温略高。近50a中国平均气温升高以北方为主,升温速率达0.8℃/10a,远大于北半球平均的升温速率。中国雨型的年代际变化明显,西北西部从20世纪80年代中降水明显增多,以新疆最为显著。中国东部则由70年代末以前的北涝南旱型转为以后的南涝北旱型。气候变暖后,中国的极端天气和气候事件的发生频率和强度也出现了变化。

This article summaries the main results and findings of the studies conducted by Chinese scientists in the past five years. The change of surface air temperature and rainfall in recent 50 and 100 years has been re-analyzed. Besides, a 1000-year annual mean temperature series has been reconstructed preliminarily. Researches also concentrate on the detection and attribution of climate warming in China for the 20th century. Projections for future climate have been undertaken by using climate models. It is shown that observed climate change in China bears a large similarity with that of global average. The country-averaged annual mean surface air temperature increase by 0.5-0.8℃ for the past 100 years, slightly larger than the global temperature increase in the same periods. Northern China witnessed the largest increase in surface air temperature by 0.8℃/10a for the past 50 years, it＇s far larger than that the velocity of Northern Hemisphere. Obvious change of rainfall pattern has been found in inter-decadal scales. In western of Northwest China the precipitation has started increasing significantly since mid-1980% especially in Xinjiang. In eastern China underwent from the pattern of northern-waterlog and south-drought since end-1970＇s to southwaterlog and north-drought. Some analyses show that frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events also underwent significant changes behind climate warming in the past 50 years or so.