日本政治思潮演变对中日关系的影响

The Evolution of Political Thought in Japan and Its Impact on Sino-Japanese Relations

日本国内政治思潮的深刻变化是影响21世纪初中日政治关系的重要因素。冷战后,日本政治右倾化伴随强烈的民族主义引起日本对华政策倒退。小泉执政期间,日本决策机制受到首相个人因素过度左右,加剧了中日矛盾。这已引起日本社会特别是有识之士的警惕。安倍晋三是在日本政治右倾化思潮背景下起步从政的,既受到这股政治思潮的熏陶,也目睹它给日本内政外交造成的创伤。安倍当选日本首相后不能不考虑摆脱小泉外交的后遗症,改善对华关系。日本政治右倾化受到一定抑制后,中日政治关系便趋向改善,而中日政治关系改善有利于抑制日本政治右倾化;但若日本政治右倾化再度抬头,中日政治关系可能出现反复。

The profound change of political thought in Japan is the key factor that affects the Sino-Japanese political relations at the beginning of the 21st century. Since the end of the Cold War, the politically rightward tendency in Japan, coupled with the rise of strong nationalism, has set back Japan's policy toward China. During Koizumi's reign, the decision-making mechanism in Japan had been excessively tempered by the Prime Minister himself, thus intensifying the contradiction between China and Japan, as well as alarming the Japanese society in general and insightful figures in particular. Abe Shinzo entered the political arena in such a context, not only affected by the trend of political thought, but also witnessing the damage done to Japan's internal politics and foreign policies by this very trend. After his election to become the Prime Minister, Abe has to think of getting rid of the aftermath of Koizumi's foreign policy and improve Japan's relations with China. Once the politically rightward tendency is somewhat checked, the Sino-Japanese political relations are likely to improve. In turn, the improved Sino-Japanese political relations would further check Japan's politically rightward tendency. However, if such a tendency rears its ugly head once again, the Sino-Japanese political relations would inevitably suffer setbacks.