肿瘤科住院人数的时间序列预测及动态分析

Time Sequence Prediction and Dynamic Analysis of Inpatients Number in the Department of Oncology

目的：掌握肿瘤科住院人数的季节变化规律，验证时间序列法在预测肿瘤科住院人数中的科学性和实用性，为及时、合理安排肿瘤病人入院，并得到及时的诊断和治疗提供科学依据。方法：以某院2002—2004年肿瘤科住院人数为依据。引用时间序列法从理论上预测2005年肿瘤科住院人数，并对3年来的肿瘤病人收治情况进行动态分析。结果：将预测值与实际完成值进行比较，结果与实际情况基本相符，显示出肿瘤科住院人数呈逐年上升趋势。结论：时间序列法预测肿瘤科住院人数结果准确、可靠，它弥补了其它预测方法的不足。说明使用时间序列法进行肿瘤科住院人数的预测，具有较强的科学性和适用性。

Objective： In order to determine the tendency of seasonal changes of inpatients number in department of oncology by analyzing the feasibility of time sequence approach in predicting it. Methods： Time sequence appreach was introduced to inpatients number of the year of 2005 based on dynamic analysis of inpatients number in department of oncology from 2002 to 2004. Results： The predicted value of time sequence approach corresponded well with the actual inpatients number in department of oneology, and it showed a rising tendency by year. Conclusions： The results indicated that it was accurate and reliable to predict inpatients number with time sequence approach in department of oncology.