城市空间增长模型研究的趋势、类型与方法

URBAN SPATIAL MODELS: NEW TRENDS, TYPES AND METHODS

城市空间分散化增长蔓延的趋势要求对未来城市空间的发展方向进行预测研究。文章在对城市空间模型的研究案例及发展趋势进行总结的基础上,将城市空间模型总结为四种类型,分别是基于因果关系的城市空间增长影响因素静态模型、基于空间发展理论和GIS空间分析的准动态城市空间增长模型、基于系统动力学微分方程(组)的城市空间增长动态模型、以及基于微观主体作用演变机制的城市空间增长模拟模型,并认为城市空间增长模型将向微观离散化发展。

The trends that dispersal urban expansion and the result that urban development becomes more unknown need the planners to study and forecast how future city building areas grow. This paper summarizes the urban spatial models into four types, including the static models of urban spatial growth effecting factors based on causality, the quasi - dynamic urban spatial growth models based on space development theory and GIS space analysis, the dynamic models of urban spatial growth based on system kinetics differential equations, the urban spatial growth simulation models based on the action and evolution mechanism of micro agent. Spatial models will progress toward more disaggregate simulation, and the expression of the models needs to be standardization in the future so as to compare and combine different models.