托克托县可持续发展能力综合评价与仿真研究

Comprehensive Evaluation and Simulation on Sustainable Development of Tuoketuo County

运用层次分析法对托克托县1998-2003年的可持续发展能力进行综合评价.结果表明,托克托县虽处于非可持续发展与弱可持续发展状态,但可持续发展能力在不断提高.运用系统动力学模型对托克托县的发展趋势进行预测,揭示了托克托县1998—2015年在3种不同方案下的可持续发展能力变化态势,提出应在旗县生态环境与资源承载能力范围内,加快经济投资与设施建设,加速经济发展,提高人民生活质量,加强生态建设,不断提高旗县内经济-社会-人口-资源-环境的协调发展与可持续发展能力.

By AHP,the sustainable development capacity of Tuoketuo County from 1998 to 2003 was evaluated. The results showed that although the sustainable development capacity of it keeps a low level,it presents increasing trend constantly. Sustainable development trend of Tuoketuo County was forecasted using system dynamics model and change trend of three different scenarios from 1998 to 2015 was given. Thinking about the ecological environment and resources, the measures such as accelerating economic investment and foundation construction, accelerating economic development, improving living level of populace and strengthening ecological environment is put forward to adjust economy, society, population, resources and environment.