中国产品内外市场占有系数研究——模型、测量与国际比较

China’s Inter/Outer Market Occupying Index: The Model, Measurement and International Comparison

经济全球化背景下一国产品同时被国内、国外两个市场吸收,一国产品占国内、国外两个市场的比例对本国经济发展有重要作用。对传统总需求函数进行重构可以推导、定义一国产品的内外市场占有系数,并明确它们对一国均衡产出与政府支出乘数的影响。经验研究发现,1992—2004年中国产品内部市场占有系数正以高于美国、日本、德国、法国等主要发达国家的速度下降,而外部市场占有系数正在以高于各主要发达国家的速度上升。内部市场占有系数下降的原因可主要归结为我国市场开放力度不断增强、人均收入增长较快而消费需求不足、原材料进口量价猛增等,外部市场占有系数的上升则可归因于大量外商直接投资造成的生产集中效应、中国出口产品技术含量的上升以及人民币汇率的长期低估。鉴于我国内部市场的巨大容量与潜力,应当在保证产品外部市场占有系数稳定增长的同时,适当控制内部市场占有系数的下降趋势。

Along the economical globalization, the products in a country are simultaneously consumed by it＇s inner and outer markets. Therefore, the respective ratio of the country＇s products in its inner/outer markets then becomes an vital factor for the GDP and the industry development. But we may deduce and define the countries＇ inter/outer market occupying index and analyze their influences on a country＇s equivalent outcome and expenditure multiplier by reconstructing the traditional aggregate demand function. The measurement shows that, during 1992-2004, China＇s inter market occupying index was decreasing with a far faster speed than the main developed countries like USA, Germany, Japan and France, with the contrast that its outer market occupying index was booming during the last ten years. The possible explanations for the decline of China＇s inter market occupying index may be the increasing economic opening, the faster speed of income per-capital increase and the lower consuming increase, and the increase of importing raw material＇s price and quantities. The reason for the rise of China＇s outer market＇s occupying index may be the centralizing effect in manufacturing resulted by large FDI to China, the increase of China＇ s exporting products＇ technical lever, and the long-lasting exchange underestimate of RMB. In regard to the large capacity and the great potential of China market, we suggest that China should properly control the down-dropping inter market dominant index under the premise that the outer market dominant index be basically stable.