基于最优有效度的电力系统可靠性原始参数的线性组合预测模型

Linear combination forecasting model of original reliability parameter of power systems based on optimal effectiveness indicator

针对电力系统可靠性原始参数缺乏和开发可靠性原始参数小样本的需要,提出了电力系统可靠性原始参数的线性组合预测模型。为了提高预测精度,分别应用灰色优化模型和Verhulst模型等改进模型进行可靠性原始参数的预测。与此同时,建立以有效度为目标函数的最优组合预测模型,并用简化的计算公式得到权系数的最优近似解,将预测值进行线性组合。基于该文所开发的预测模型的预测结果表明,组合预测模型的预测结果优于单一模型的预测结果。

According to the lack of the original reliability parameter and the necessity of exploiting original reliability parameter small stylebook, a linear combination forecasting model of original reliability parameter of power systems is proposed. In order to improve the forecasting accuracy, the improved models, such as grey optimum model and Verhulst model, are carried out for forecasting original reliability parameter separately. Meanwhile, a combined forecasting optimal model is set up, which is based on the effectiveness indicator, and the simplified calculation formula is used to get the optimal approximate solution about weight coefficient, and the final results are obtained by linear combining forecasting model. The results of using the proposed model indicate that the forecasting result of combining forecasting model is better than that of the single model. This project is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China （No.50337010）.