SWAT模型在青海湖布哈河流域径流变化成因分析中的应用

Application of SWAT model to analysis of runoff variation of Buha River Basin of Qinghai Lake

为了探讨气候变化和人类活动对流域水文过程的影响，利用分布式水文模型SWAT对青海湖布哈河流域过去几十年径流变化进行了模拟研究．研究结果表明，20世纪80-90年代流域径流减少的主要原因是气候变化．在此基础上，根据未来不同气候情景的变化趋势，对布哈河径流变化进行了预测，得出未来30年径流增加的可能性比较大，青海湖水位下降速度将会减缓甚至出现上升趋势的结论．

The study was performed to investigate the influences of climate variation and human activities on the hydrological process of the river basin. With the distributed hydrological model SWAT, runoff variation of the Buha River of the past decades was simulated. From the analysis, it is concluded that the climate variation is the main cause of runoff decrease in the river basin from the 1980s to the 1990s. Then, the runoff variation of the Buha River was predicted according to the variation trend of climate condition. The result shows that the runoff will possibly increase in the following 30 years, which will lead to the deceleration of the lowering or even to the rise of the water level of Qinghai Lake.