大兴安岭落叶松毛虫发育进度预测的研究

Study on Rate of Development of Dendrolimus superans(Butler)in Daxing’an Mountains

探讨了用Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ生长模型拟合落叶松毛虫发育进度曲线，并通过坐标轴平移实现基准曲线、预测曲线、实测曲线共坐标系，便于分析比较预测结果的可靠性，便于计算机对害虫数据的管理。在大兴安岭落叶松毛虫的预测预报中取得了良好的效果。

The paper discussed the method in which the rate of development of Dendrolimus superans was modelized using logistic mathematical model,and by means of the translation of ccordinate axis,to make basiccurve, predictive curve and practical curve in a ccordinate system was realized.The method made it easy toanalyse reliability of predictive results and to manage the data of insect pests by using computer,The results ofprediction of the rate of development to Dendrolimus superans were satisfied。