中国未来人口发展的粮食安全与耕地保障

Future Food Security and Arable Land Guarantee for Population Development in China

中国人口发展的粮食安全与耕地保证程度研究表明，随着人口增长和消费扩张，中国未来的耕地规模和人均耕地面积会进一步下降，人均粮食消费水平和粮食需求总量将进一步提高；2020年在人均粮食420-435kg的消费水平上，基于18亿亩耕地保证的粮食生产能力可以基本满足14．36亿入口的粮食需求；在入均450kg的消费水平上，中国未来耕地的粮食生产能力足以支持入口高锋时间的14．73亿人，但受耕地资源有限约束，人均粮食占有水平很难有进一步提高。从耕地、粮食与人口关系看，中国未来人口的粮食安全必须向食物安全转变，从耕地资源约束的粮食生产与人口增长驱动的食物消费两端着眼：一方面要重视耕地与粮食安全——藏粮于土，全面提高土地资源综合生产能力；一方面要关注食物与消费安全——倡导适度消费，建立动植物并重型食物结构；从生产与消费两方面来认识和解决中国中长期人口发展的食物安全与耕地保障问题。

The study aims to explore food security and arable land guarantee for population development in China. The results indicate that the increase of future population and food consumption will be definitely coupled with a decrease in total arable land and per capita arable land area, as well as an increase in per capita food consumption and total food demand. The findings highlight that a total of 120 million ha of arable land will have to be reserved for ensuring grain demand of about 1.44 billion people at a per capita consumption level of 420-435 kg grain. And at a per capita consumption level of 450 kg grain, the grain production capacity of arable land could meet grain demand of about 1.47 billion people-estimated peak of the Chinese population. However, further increase in per capita grain occupancy is not optimistic, thanks to the restriction of limited arable land resources. The relationship between arable land area, food production and population suggests that emphasis on future food security be transferred into grain security, and the focus be placed on food production restricted by arable land and on the increasing grain consumption driven by population growth. Thus, special attention should be paid, on the one hand, to the arable land area and food production, i. e. , improvement in land productivity, and on the other hand, to the security of food production and consumption through formation of moderate consumption ideology and establishment of reasonable food structure for proper intake of animal and plant nutrition. The study concludes that both production and consumption factors should be taken into consideration for ensuring the Chinese food security and arable land for population development in the middle and long run.