基于蒙特卡洛方法的卫星成本预测模型研究

The Establishment and Analysis of Monte Carlo Model in Satellite Cost Estimation

针对传统的卫星成本预测模型没有包括相应的不确定性因素,提出了基于蒙特卡洛方法的卫星成本预测模型,用以解决主要由技术风险引起的不确定性.针对利用该模型模拟得出的分布曲线可能介于两种标准分布之间的情况,提出了二次拟合检验的思想,提高了拟合的精度.最后,将收集到的相关数据代入该模型并与常用的卫星成本预测方法进行比较,其精度大约提高了10%.可见,使用蒙特卡洛方法进行卫星成本的预测具有较好的精确度.

After analysis, the paper points out that the traditional satellite cost estimation models does not include the corresponding uncertainties, and unable to understand these influences on cost of factor, it cannot predict the accident. Then, this paper put forward Monte Carlo model deal with the uncertainties caused by technological problems, after that, the paper carries on further research to this model, under the basis of the thing that X2 fits and examines, direct against that the distribution curve drawn to simulation may lie between two kinds of standards distributing, the thought of putting forward the second time firing examining, has improved the precision of firing. Finally, it puts collected corresponding data into this model and compares with the traditional satellite cost estimation method, the precision almost increase 10%. Therefore, we can see that using Monte Carlo method to estimate satellite cost can get better precision.