俄罗斯的政治经济局势与中俄能源合作——“2007’新时期中俄经贸关系形势分析”论坛观点选粹

Political and economic landscape in Russia and Sino-Russian energy cooperation——Views expressed at the forum on “Economic and Trade Ties between China and Russia in the New Age-2007”

在中国对外关系格局中，俄罗斯既是我们重要的周边邻国，又是举足轻重的大国，也是活跃在国际舞台上的“发展中国家”，因此，中俄关系是多重性的战略伙伴关系。中俄关系目前处于难得的上升阶段，但暗流仍然存在，互信仍亟待提升。俄罗斯“入世”后，中俄两国将迎来一个新的合作阶段，但贸易摩擦和纠纷也必然会接踵而至。因此，及早分析形势和研究对策是很有必要的。2007年1月10日，对外经济贸易大学中国一俄罗斯／独联体研究中心举办了“2007’新时期中俄经贸关系形势分析”论坛。出席论坛的领导、专家和学者就当前俄罗斯的内政、外交以及中俄经贸关系等问题进行了广泛的学术交流和研讨。下面采撷会上部分专家、学者的权威观点，以飨读者。

The Forum on “Economic and Trade Ties between China and Russia in the New Age-2007” was held in Beijing on January 10, 2007 at the Center for China & Russia-Commonwealth of Independent States, University of International Business & Economics. At the forum, officials, experts and scholars from across academia discussed trends in Russian politics and foreign policy as well as Sino-Russian economic and trade ties. Some political experts consider the governing policies laid down by President Putin to be supported not only by the elite but also by the broad general public, and that this paves the way for their continued implementation after he steps down in 2008. Putin's successor will not derail Russia from renewed pursuit of global power status guided by the strategies mapped out by Putin. The Russian economy, experts say, has been strong enough to fence itself off from external risks and pursue independent development, and the groundwork has been laid to address its economic and social problems and ensure sustained economic growth and social stability. By reaching consensus with the US on its accession to the WTO,Russia has removed its biggest obstacle to WTO membership. Backed by a rebounding economy and increasing overall national power, Russia now seeks to be more active in foreign affairs,Besides increasing cooperation with Germany, France and other European countries and increasing influence among the Commonwealth of Independent States,Russia is also seeking a more active role in the Middle East and Latin America. According to some experts, Russia's strategic interest in Central Asia energy centers on keeping control over the local oil & gas export facilities to maintain its monopoly. But future regional energy cooperation, they say, will be subject to a set of accepted market standards. Breaking up Russia's monopoly over regional energy trade will, in the long run, benefit both energy-importing and energy-exporting countries and, if done by WTO rules, will avoid unnecessary conflicts and disputes. Cooperation between China and Russia not only in energy but also in other areas needs to be brought under WTO rules. As a critical issue bearing much upon the relationship between the two countries in future, Sino-Russian cooperation in energy needs to be approached by considering both countries' strategic interests in resources, markets, geopolitics, foreign affairs and national defense. Prospects for cooperation need to be considered on a par with the potential problems that might come up in the process.