透过黄昏的雾霭 揭示石油的未来——《沙漠黄昏》作者马修·R·西蒙斯访谈

Revealing the future of oil through the book “Twilight in the Desert”——Interview with author Matthew R.Simmons

2007年1月13日，《沙漠黄昏：即将来临的沙特石油危机与世界经济》中文版首发式在北京举行。作为资深的国际能源分析家，《沙漠黄昏》的作者马修·R·西蒙斯对许多国际重大能源问题有独到见解和深入研究。他通过实地调研，特别是对1960年以来美国石油工程师学会近300篇关于沙特石油的论文的分析，揭示了中东特别是沙特阿拉伯石油资源的前景和未来石油供应能力的神秘面纱。在《沙漠黄昏》中，他以大量的数据和事实说明，沙特的石油资源是有限的，并且已经过了鼎盛时期。他还充分阐述了对沙特石油生产达到顶峰的影响所作的思考，警示人们，必须立即行动起来，在全球范围内提高石油资源的使用效率，但也要避免盲目地以耗费更多能源的方式去开发某些新能源。

The Chinese version of the book Twilight in the Desert:The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy by Matthew R. Simmons was launched on January 13th,2007,in Beijing. Drawing on his three-plus decades of insider experience and nearly 300 independently produced reports on Saudi petroleum resources and production Simmons,a veteran oil industry analyst with acute insight into global energy issues,reveals a cryptic picture of oil resources in the Middle East,particularly Saudi Arabia,and future global oil supply. With substantive data and facts,Simmons shows that the Saudi oil production has peaked. He warns that actions must be taken right now to increase the efficiency with which oil is used worldwide while avoiding shortsighted efforts to develop new sources of energy at the cost of more energy being consumed. Matthew R. Simmons agreed to be interviewed by editor- in-chief Yang Chaohong after the launch party,and he explained his views on some major energy issues to her: 1) reliable data is the only sound basis for planning and mutual trust; 2) his Peak Oil hypothesis serves as a wake-up call to the world to map out new strategies for economic development that address a global decline in oil supply; 3) 'energy could be easily converted from one form to another ' does not hold true and developing alternative sources of energy will not lead anywhere; 4) modern technology plus innovative thinking is required for addressing major energy problems; 5) trade expansion brought by economic globalization will lead to increased oil consumption; 6) the best way to use petro- dollars is to construct petroleum infrastructure,increase employment,raise people's living standards and promote economic growth and social development.