生物质能综合利用两层通用决策支持系统的研究

Study on the a two-level general decision support system for synthesizing of bioenergy production

在制定生物质能生产计划时,影响决策者的因素不仅包括生物质供应链本身的不同环节,而且包括生物质系统对于社会、环境和经济的影响及其在某个特定的国家内开发的困难程度。为了综合考虑上述因素,本文提出生物质能两层通用决策系统(gBEDS),其核心是数据库,包括基本的生物质信息和详细的决策信息,此外,还包括方案数据库和为新用户提供示范的案例库。在数据库的基础上,决策系统包括单元过程(UP)的模拟模块和用于优化决策的遗传算法。在图形界面的帮助下,用户可以自行定义生物质供应链,并进行环境、经济、社会或其他方面的评价;在生物质能生产全生命周期的模拟和优化模型的基础上,系统采用数据挖掘方法(模糊c均值聚类和决策树)确定最优的生物质原材料收集存储和转化工厂的地理位置。使用Matlab开发生物质供应链的生物质计划参数(例如费用和CO_2排放)的计算模型。同时,用地理信息系统(GIS)对生物能转化工厂和存储数据作可视化表达,以支持用户在智能输出的基础上做出决策。因此,gBEDS支持生物质能国家计划者,制定一种有效的生物质能生产计划并作出综合评价,地方的设计和实施者确定优化、详细的单元过程实施上述计划。日本森林废物发电的实例研究表明了上述方法的有效性和可行性。

When planning bioenergy production from biomass, planners should take into account the different links alone the biomass supply chains ; meanwhile they have to consider the social concerns about environmental and economical impacts of establishing the biomass systems and the utilization difficulties in a specific country. To overcome these problems, a two-level general Bioenergy Decision System （gBEDS） for energy production planning and implementation was developed. The core part of gBEDS is the information base, which includes the basic bioenergy information and the detail decision information. It also includes a scenario database, which is used for demonstration to new users and also to case base reasoning by planners and executers. Based on the information base, the following modules are included for the decision-making： the simulation module with graph interface based on the unit process （UP） definition and the genetic algorithms （GAs） methods for optimal decisions. With the help of the graph interface, the users can define easily the feasible biomass supply chains and evaluate them. System applies data mining methods （Fuzzy C-means Clustering and decision trees） to find the recommended storage and conversion plants locations under the help of the developed simulation and optimization model for the whole life cycle of bioenergy generation. Maflab is used for the development of parameter calculation model of biomass planning parameters （ e. g. costs, CO2 emissions）, for the predefined biomass supply chains. GIS-based interface is used to visualize all bioenergy conversion plants and storage data to support the user taking the desired decision based on sensible outputs. Therefore gBEDS supports biomass energy planners in both national level and regional level to assess the options （ technically and economically） of biomass utilization and plan for bioenergy generation in a competent and sustainable way.