基于模糊评价方法的中国水资源承载力研究

Fuzzy comprehensive assesment for carrying capacity of water resource in China

应用模糊综合评判方法对中国水资源承载能力进行了分析评价,探讨了水资源承载能力模糊综合评价的方法.在对水资源特征及开发利用等影响承载能力的主要因素进行分析的基础上,在评价因素选取、权重分配方面对水生态环境、生态用水因素给予了重点考虑.结果表明:中国西部地区水资源有较大的开发容量,水资源承载能力的潜力相对较大;长江、珠江流域及东部沿海地区用水紧张,水资源承载力基本枯竭.

In this paper, it discusses the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method for the water resources carrying capacity（WCC） on the base of analysing and assessing the WCC of China using the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. It also pays attention to the facrors of the water eco-environment and eco-consumption of water depended on analysing how the main factors, which is water resource characters and water exploitation, influence the WCC. The result shows that the water resource in the west regions has more potential development and the WCC in west regions is relatively strong, but the water resource in the Changjiang and Zhu river basin is seriously short-supplied and their WCC have reached to their limit value.