基于隐性故障模型和风险理论的关键线路辨识

Power System Key-lines Identification Based on Hidden Failure Model and Risk Theory

在大规模电网中,由简单故障触发的电力系统连锁故障常常会引起大停电的灾难性后果。为了研究复杂电网连锁故障的传播机理,同时找出对连锁故障产生重要影响的关键线路,文中基于模拟连锁故障的隐性故障模型和风险理论,提出了复杂电力系统的线路故障风险评估方法,并辨识出了对系统大停电产生重要影响的一系列关键线路。模型考虑了线路过负荷保护、隐性故障、控制策略及系统运行等参数,对IEEE118节点系统仿真结果表明,在重负荷状态运行下只对辨识出的少量关键线路加以改善,就可以使系统停电概率大幅减小,特别是大停电概率;在临界状态运行下改善少量关键线路,则可以使系统脱离临界状态,避免大停电发生。

In bulk power systems, cascading failures initiated by normal events often lead to blackouts. For the purpose of investigating how the failures spread in the power grids, finding out the key-lines affecting the cascading failures, this paper presents an approach to calculate the risk of line outage and identify key-lines causing blackouts based on the hidden failure model and risk theory. Taking IEEE 118-bus system for an example, this model considers line overload, hidden failure, control strategy and operational conditions. Simulation results indicate that improving a few key-lines identified at heavy loading can reduce the probability of blackouts, especially large-scale blackouts. They also show that improving a few key-lines identified at critical state can make the system out of critical state and avoid large blackouts.