特小子样场合下，Bayes方法与仿真在飞行器试验分析中的运用

The Application of Bayes Approach and Simulation to Vehicle Test Analysis Under the Circumstances of Extra Small Sample

本文论述具有验前信息下的试验结果统计推断方法。文中以再入飞行器落点精度评估为例，说明了Ｂａｙｅｓ方法的特点。对于验前信息的获取及验前分布的表示作了重点论述。文中提供的方法。

In this ppaer, statistical inference methods for test result with prior information are studied. The character of Bayes approach are stated by taking the example of impact point accuracy evaluation of reentry vehicle. The acquirement of prior information and the expression of prior distribution are discussed emphatically. The proposed methods have general meaning to vehicle test result anslysis under the circumstances of small, even extra small sample.