地震趋势区划结构自适应模型

Adaptive Structure Model of Earthquake Trend Regionalization

简要地回顾了现有的地震区划方法，针对综合概率法需要进一步解决的“地震活动性时空不均匀性”问题，提出了包括趋势项、周期项、随机项和白噪声项等内容的结构模型及用于模型选择的指标系统。在结构模型中，不同的项用自适应等不同方法进行标定，其和就是震级上限的预报值。为了获得震害要素的空间扩散参数，建立了大型的中国历史地震灾情信息系统（２３００Ｂ．Ｃ．～Ａ．Ｄ．１９９０）。利用求得的震级上限值及空间扩散参数，求出场点的具有某种超越概率的烈度值（Ｐｍａｘ）或最大概率最大烈度值（Ｉｍａｘ）。

This paper reviews the methods of seismic regionalization, and directed against the problems of inhomogeneity of seismicity in space-time distribution of earthquake,which need to be further solved for the method of comprehensive probability, and has put forward an adaptive structure model with earthquake trend, seismic cycles, stochastic,noise, etc., and a index system to make choice of model. In this adaptive structure model,it has been demarcated by different methods such as adaptive algorithm for the distinct items. To obtain every spacial diffusion parameter of earthquake damage elements, an information system of historical seismic disasters (2300 B. C. to A. D. 1980) has been set up. By means of the value of upper limit of magnitude of earthquakes and the spacial diffusion parameters that have been solved, the intensity value (Pmax) with some transcendental probability or the muximum intensity value with maximum probability (Imax) can be obtained.