高层建筑物沉降预测方法的比较

Comparison of Forecasting Means of Sedimentation Number of High-Rise Building

用沉降预测工作中常用到的指数平滑法、回归分析法及灰色预测模型,对建筑物的沉降量进行预测,并应用工程观测中的实测数据进行了预测,从多方面对这三种方法的精度及可靠性进行了比较分析,结果表明:对于沉降趋势较为缓慢平稳的数据,采用灰色模型预测可以得到较为理想的结果;而对于变化速率的增量较小,且后期变化十分平稳的情况,采用指数平滑预测可以得到较好的效果;当沉降波动较大时,宜采用回归分析法拟合,然后进行预测.

The common methods of the work of the settlement prediction such as exponential smoothing method,regression analysis method and the grey prediction model are used to predict the sedimentation number of high-rise building, and a forecasting experiment is conducted with the practical data. Also, the precision and the reliability of this three methods are comparative analysis from several ways. The experimental results are as follows：for the data whose downtrend is smooth,it is perfect to use the grey model method; for the settlement data which is changing slowly and the change of the later period is quite gentle,the exponential smoothing method is fit; for the settlement data whose fluctuation is obvious,the regression analysis method is better.