无缝线路稳定性计算参数的变异性影响分析

Parameter Variability Impact Analysis of Stability of Track with Continuous Welded Rails

针对无缝线路轨道稳定性的计算参数(道床横向阻力、轨道原始弯曲、钢轨温升幅度、扣件阻矩系数)具有明显的随机性,对计算结果影响较大的实际情况,运用概率,采用单参数敏感性分析法,保持各参数的平均值不变,通过改变它们的变异系数.基于蒙特卡洛方法,对设计参数进行敏感性分析.分析结果表明,计算参数中的道床横向阻力、轨道原始弯曲、钢轨温升幅度对于无缝线路稳定性可靠度具有较高的敏感性,而扣件阻矩系数对可靠度的影响较小.

Many uncertainties cause unavoidable risk in engineering planning and decision. With the development of the speeding up of the railway, the requirement for the smoothness of track is raised inereusingly, thus it is of importance that the stability of continuous welded rall （CWR） track should be studied. The design parameters that affect the stability of CWR track appear random variables, and the analysis of CWR track stability by means of probability is mere necessary. By means of Monte Carlo method, the reliability of CWR track stability is analyzed, and the sensitivity of random variables on the reliability is studied. It can be concluded that the reliability is more sensitive to the variation of lateral ballast resistance, initial deflection and the range of allowable temperature variation of CWR, and that the reliability is less sensitive to the variation of the rail fastening resistance moment coefficient. In the paper, All the results are valuable to ensure train operation safety and improve the economic performance of maintenance and service of track.