摘要
基于复杂适应系统理论,对水资源系统进行分析。以水资源的配置和利用为主线,根据复杂适应理论的受限生成过程建模要素和步骤,构建宏观经济水资源综合模型。通过模型框架,将水资源系统中的宏观经济子系统和水资源子系统相互作用通过内生变量联接起来,分析南水北调西线工程对黄河流域受水区的影响,得到黄河流域二级区不同配水方案相对于无调水情况的GDP变化、单方水效益、入海水量和主要断面流量过程变化等。
Complex adaptive system description of dynamical mechanism status, an integrated research model water flow into sea and the theory is a new means to analyze the complex water resources system. With the of system behavior characters of agents and the evaluation method of system is built. By use of the model, the GDP change, the benefit per unit water, the discharge change of main river section are obtained for beneficial regions of the south-to- north water transfer.
出处
《水力发电学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第2期19-26,共8页
Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金(50409001)
关键词
水资源配置
综合模型
影响分析
复杂适应系统
南水北调西线工程
water resources allocation
integrated model
influence analysis
complex adaptive system
western route of south-to-north water transfer project
