基于实时运行条件的元件停运因素分析与停运率建模

Outage Factors Analysis and Outage Rate Model of Components Based on Operating Conditions

分析实时运行条件对元件可靠性模型的影响是运行可靠性评估的基础。将导致元件停运的因素分为3类①元件不正常运行时引起保护动作;②元件本身故障,退出运行;③其他如外界环境、人为误操作以及元件保护误动作等。前2类因素与运行条件相关。在第1类因素建模中,根据保护动作时限建立了基于运行条件的停运率模型。在第2类因素建模中,根据故障率随运行条件的变化关系建模。综合考虑所有因素,在理论上建立了基于单个运行条件与基于多个运行条件的元件停运率模型。应用该方法建立了基于电压、频率的发电机模型,以IEEERTS-79为算例验证了该模型的有效性,并与传统可靠性评估进行比较分析。

The outage factors of components are divided into three kinds： 1）. protection break tripping when components are in abnormal operating conditions; 2）. random failures of components; 3） others such as external circumstances, artificial maloperation and real-tripping of protection components. The first two are related to operating conditions. The outage rate model for the first factor based on operating conditions is then established with respect to the time delay of relay protection. The outage rate model for the second factor is obtained from the relation of component＇ s failure rate to operating conditions. By taking into account all outage factors, the outage rate models of components based on the single operating and multi operating conditions are theoretically established, respectively. Moreover, the generator＇ s outage rate model based on the voltage and frequency is developed using the modeling method proposed. Evaluation results of IEEE RTS-79 show that the outage rate model can reflect the impact of operating conditions on the system＇s real-time reliability.