我国外汇储备规模、需求及其动态调整

The Scale, Demand and Dynamic Adjustment for China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves

本文分析了我国外汇储备规模变动的主要影响变量;在此基础上利用动态调整模型确定我国的外汇储备需求方程,并依此来判断我国所持有的外汇储备规模。结果表明:1996年以来,我国大部分年份的外汇储备供过于求,但外汇储备实际持有量与需求量之间的缺口有63%的部分在年度内得到了调整。

In this paper, we first analyze major variables to explain the variation of foreign exchange reserves. By utilizing model of dynamic adjustment, we construct foreign exchange reserve equation to judge whether foreign exchange reserve is adequate or surplus. The conclusions are： （1） foreign exchange reserve has been an excess of supply over demand after 1996, （2） more than 63 per cent of the discrepancy between actual and desired reserves is made up within one year.