弹性通货膨胀目标制下的汇率与货币政策规则

The Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy Rule in the Flexible Inflation Targeting

弹性通货膨胀目标制度框架下,政策制定者是否只应关注国内变量而避免对外汇市场的波动进行任何方式的干预呢?利用6个明确实施通货膨胀目标制的开放经济国家的信息资料,通过对汇率的非均衡是否会对货币政策操作产生系统性影响进行实证分析检验后发现,虽然各国存在明显差异,但是普遍来说,这些开放经济国家的货币政策不会专门针对汇率变动进行系统的反应调整。换句话说,利率规则中似乎不需要把汇率作为一个单独的变量予以考虑。但与此同时,在货币政策决策过程中,作为信息变量,汇率还是一个很有价值的因素。

Under a flexible inflation targeting regime, should policymakers avoid any reaction to movements in the foreign exchange market？ Using data about four advanced open - economy countries explicitly carrying out an inflation targeting regime, this paper makes a positive examination of whether a real exchange rate disequilibrium systematically af- fects operations of monetary policy. Although there are some significant differences among those countries, the estimates indicate that exchange rates are generally not crucial to systematic monetary responses in inflation targeting and open economies. However, the exchange rate, as an information variable, is found to be valuable in the monetary policy- making process.